ESL Math

I suppose it's time for the annual pin-the-tail-on-the-471-deadline game.

First, the theoretical: FCC rules require 60 days between the release of the Eligible Services List (ESL) and the start of the window, and the old tradition was an 80-day application window. If the FCC released the ESL today, the application window would open January 13th and close April 3rd. As I've said before, I'm in favor of a later window closing, but they need to drastically simplify the secret rulebook if they want PIA to plow through all the applications in 3 months.

Now the reality: The Third Report and Order released December 2003 (as opposed to the first Third Report and Order, released October 1997, which created the filing window) states: "At least sixty days prior to the opening of the window for the following funding year, the Commission will then issue a public notice attaching the final eligible services list for the upcoming funding year. The Commission anticipates that this public notice will be released on or before September 15 of each year."

Here's what's actually happened:

FY	ESL release	Window open	60 days?	Window close	Window days
2005	10/14/2004	12/14/2004	61	2/17/2005	65
2006	11/22/2005	12/6/2005	14	2/16/2006	72
2007	10/19/2006	11/14/2006	26	2/7/2007	85
2008	10/19/2007	11/7/2007	19	2/7/2008	92

So we should open up a little pool. Feel free to give your guesses on the following:
When will the ESL be released?
When will the window open?
When will the window close?
When will the first FCDL be issued?

Here are my guesses:
11/21/08
12/5/08 (cutting the 60 days to 14)
2/9/09 (giving us a 66-day window)
4/17/09

That creates unpleasantly tight timelines for applicants, but nothing unprecedented.