I blogged a couple of weeks ago about the importance of a bill making its way through Congress. The bills would expand the revenue base, which would lower the contribution factor. People looking to chop the E-Rate often point to the growing contribution factor as if it were a tax increase. (It isn't really.)
I thought maybe I'd update an analysis I did years ago, looking at the revenue base, the contribution factor, and the actual cost to consumers.
So first, let's look at the contribution factor over the years:
That looks grim, all right. You'd think that the fee on consumers had septupled over the last 25 years. But it's not so. Most of the increase is due to this:
As you can see the revenue base has been dropping steadily over the last 25 years. That makes sense; the revenue base is interstate and international telecommunications charges, that is, long distance, and when was the last time you had to pay for long distance? So just to keep program revenues flat, the FCC has had to increase the contribution factor.
But that doesn't explain the whole increase in the contribution factor. Take a look at the total fees charged to consumers to fund the Universal Service Fund:
The total amount charged to consumers tripled from 2000 to 2012, and since then has been basically bouncing around between $2.5 and $3 billion.
Why did it shoot up during those 12 years? Here's a graph showing the culprit:
It's that High Cost fund. The E-Rate has been bouncing along between $400 and $600 billion the whole time. Rural Healthcare has had a huge percentage increase, but it's still too small to have a big effect. The Low Income program rose to a peak in 2012, but has since fallen back to around where it was in 2000. But the High Cost fund more than doubled between 2000 and 2012, and has held pretty steady since then.
So when you hear someone say the E-Rate is driving up the contribution factor, you can say that the increase in the contribution factor has been caused by: 1) the loss of the revenue base on which the USF fee is charged, and 2) the increase in the size of the High Cost fund.